Base stealing is an exciting aspect of the game.
It is also largely detrimental to your team's chances of
scoring multiple runs in a single inning. Does
that stop managers from using it? Or cause
managers to use it selectively, when it stands the most
chance of doing some good? If you answered "yes"
then you haven't been paying attention.
Essentially, base stealing is a way to increase a
team's slugging percentage (by moving a running who just
hit a single from first to second, thereby getting
nearly the same effect as if he had hit a double) while
running the risk of lowering a team's on-base percentage
(by possibly getting thrown out and erasing the runner
entirely.)
So, which teams should use the stolen base?
Obviously, teams with an excess of on-base percentage
but with a low slugging average. If your team is
filled with guys who draw lots of walks and hits lots of
singles for a good average, but who rarely hit for
power, then the stolen base is a good way of
artificially increasing your team's slugging percentage.
However, which teams do you see using the stolen base
the most? Usually, it's the teams that have a real
hard time getting anyone on base. Teams like that
can't afford to waste a single base runner, but they do
all the damn time.
The most accurate indicator of a team's success in
scoring runs is their on-base percentage. Teams
with a high on-base percentage will always score more
runs over the course of a season than teams with a low
on-base percentage. It simply makes sense - if you
get a lot of guys on base, more of them are going to
wind up coming around to score. If you only get a
few guys on base, you're going to have fewer guys
crossing the plate.
So, why do teams with low OB% continue to run
themselves out of innings and waste base runners by
trying to steal? Well, for two reasons:
because they are shackled to outdated traditions and
because they are stupid.
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