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 Base Stealing

 

Base stealing is an exciting aspect of the game.  It is also largely detrimental to your team's chances of scoring multiple runs in a single inning.  Does that stop managers from using it?  Or cause managers to use it selectively, when it stands the most chance of doing some good?  If you answered "yes" then you haven't been paying attention.

Essentially, base stealing is a way to increase a team's slugging percentage (by moving a running who just hit a single from first to second, thereby getting nearly the same effect as if he had hit a double) while running the risk of lowering a team's on-base percentage (by possibly getting thrown out and erasing the runner entirely.)

So, which teams should use the stolen base?  Obviously, teams with an excess of on-base percentage but with a low slugging average.  If your team is filled with guys who draw lots of walks and hits lots of singles for a good average, but who rarely hit for power, then the stolen base is a good way of artificially increasing your team's slugging percentage.

However, which teams do you see using the stolen base the most?  Usually, it's the teams that have a real hard time getting anyone on base.  Teams like that can't afford to waste a single base runner, but they do all the damn time.

The most accurate indicator of a team's success in scoring runs is their on-base percentage.  Teams with a high on-base percentage will always score more runs over the course of a season than teams with a low on-base percentage.  It simply makes sense - if you get a lot of guys on base, more of them are going to wind up coming around to score.  If you only get a few guys on base, you're going to have fewer guys crossing the plate.

So, why do teams with low OB% continue to run themselves out of innings and waste base runners by trying to steal?  Well, for two reasons:  because they are shackled to outdated traditions and because they are stupid.

 

 

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This page last updated on 08/27/2005.

Copyright © 1999-2005 Michael O'Brien
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