Very few people seem to consider context when
speaking about baseball records. Bob Gibson
(arguably the finest right-hander ever to take the
mound) posted a 1.12 ERA in 1968, which was and is
fantastic. But in the late 1960's pitching ruled
baseball. There was no DH yet, the pitcher's mound
was higher, and advances in weight training and
nutrition (which benefit all players, but which give a
greater advantage to the hitter) were still in their
infancy. The best hitters in either league could
barely manage a .300 average.
When Pedro Martinez posted a 1.90 ERA in 1997, it
should have been considered a greater achievement than
Gibson's stellar performance 29 years earlier. In
the late 90's it was common for dozens of players to
post averages over .300 every year. Go take a look
at the top twenty ERA's from 1968, and then the top
twenty from 1997. Then go take a look at the top
twenty batting averages, slugging percentages, and
on-base percentages from the same two years. Go
ahead and do it right now by clicking
here.
In 1968 the top twenty pitchers allowed 1180 earned
runs over the course of 5102.2 innings, which works out
to an ERA of 2.08. The top twenty hitters managed
a paltry .298 batting average.
In 1997 the top twenty pitchers allowed 1391 earned
runs in 4503 innings, which equals an ERA of 2.78.
The top twenty hitters posted an impressive .329 batting
average. Everyone looking at those statistics can
see there's a difference, even if they can't quite put
their finger on what that difference is. Even so,
statistics and records from one year are constantly
being compared to statistics and records from other
years, and in a context suggesting that all years are
equal.
Let's say that in the fictional 2002 season of the
Northern Arkansas American Legion League, first baseman
John "The Hitman" Doe of the Mudville Woodchucks batted
.867, with 110 home runs and 400 runs batted in.
If I were to take those statistics and seriously try to
compare them to Barry Bonds' numbers for the same year
(.370 batting average, 46 home runs, 110 RBI) everyone
would tell me I was nuts. The leagues are totally
different, the caliber of the pitching is different, the
level of play is different, etc... Everyone would
immediately see that any comparison would not be valid.
But if everyone can see that, why do so many people make
the same invalid comparisons with professional baseball
statistics? Does anyone not recognize the
difference steroids have made to hitters? Is
anyone unaware of the increase in hitting (for both
average and power) that occurs at Coors Field?
Contact me with any positive feedback, snide
comments, sincere or sarcastic questions,
pseudo-intellectual remarks, or honest wishes for a long
and pleasant life.